Colonel William A. Phillips

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a Class I member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. It will be held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate, other elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.[1]

Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow was first elected in 2000, defeating incumbent Republican Spencer Abraham. Stabenow was most recently re-elected in 2018 with 52.3% of the vote and announced on January 5, 2023 that she would not seek a fifth term in office. This will be the first open race for this seat since 1994, which was the only time since 1972 that Republicans won a Michigan U.S. Senate race.[2][3]

Background

A swing state, Michigan is considered to be a purple to slightly blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Michigan by 2.8 percentage points at the 2020 presidential election. However, Democrats have seen much more success in recent years in the state. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, seven of 13 of the U.S. House congressional delegation, the minimum majority in the Michigan Senate, and all statewide offices.[4]

This race is considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean and that there is no incumbent; however, most analysts consider the race leaning towards the Democrats.[5] In-fighting among Michigan Republicans after the 2022 elections left the state party poor in funding for the U.S. Senate race[6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13] and defaulting on a bank loan.[14][15] The MIGOP also failed to meet campaign finance reporting deadlines.[16]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Bribery allegations

In November 2023, actor and Democratic Senate candidate Hill Harper gained attention after Politico reported that he had declined an offer of $20 million in campaign contributions from former Motown Motion Picture Studios owner Linden Nelson that would have been contingent upon him dropping out of the Senate race and mounting a primary challenge against U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib.[44][45][46] Prior to the announcement, Harper had supported a "humanitarian ceasefire" and later reiterated his support for an extension to the 2023 Israel–Hamas ceasefire.[47] AIPAC spokesperson Marshall Wittmann replied to the matter stating that it "was absolutely not involved in any way in this matter. Also, our records indicate that [Nelson] has not contributed to AIPAC in over a decade."[48]

Later that same month, fellow Democratic Senate candidate Nasser Beydoun alleged that former Michigan Democratic Party chair Lon Johnson had approached him with an identical offer to drop out of the Senate race and primary Tlaib, despite Beydoun's publicly pro-Palestinian stance. Johnson repeatedly denied the claims, saying, "that's just crazy. I didn't offer him $20 million, or any other amount of money, to run against Rashida. That's insane."[49]

Had either candidate accepted the alleged donation offer, Campaign Legal Center federal reform director Saurav Ghosh said any potential coordination between a candidate and a donor with such amounts of financing would be illegal, and "could thus qualify as an excessive contribution".[48] Meanwhile, Michigan Campaign Finance Network executive director Nick Pigeon said that such overtures, if true, would "appear to violate campaign finance restrictions on coordination between independent expenditures and a candidate committee", albeit rarely enforced.[47]

Endorsements

Nasser Beydoun
Organizations
Hill Harper
U.S. representatives
Municipal officials
Organizations
Labor unions
Elissa Slotkin
Statewide elected officials
U.S. representatives
State cabinet officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Pamela Pugh (withdrawn)
Mayors
Declined to endorse
Presidents
U.S. senators
Unions

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nasser Beydoun (D) $682,479 $333,350 $349,129
Zack Burns (D) $29,073 $24,782 $4,290
Hill Harper (D) $1,324,792[a] $1,170,358 $154,434
Leslie Love (D)[b] $18,160 $3,061 $15,098
Pamela Pugh (D)[b] $90,638 $81,363 $9,275
Elissa Slotkin (D) $11,684,898 $5,664,013 $6,020,884
Source: Federal Election Commission[79]

Elissa Slotkin has led the field in fundraising with nearly $8.9 million for her Senate campaign as of October 2023.[80][81] By mid-August 2023, she had raised nearly $6 million for her Senate campaign.[82] Slotkin received more than $35,000 from executives of the studios involved in the 2023 SAG-AFTRA strike and the 2023 Writers Guild of America strike, including more than $26,000 in contributions from Disney executives, $2,500 from a Sony Pictures film executive, and $2,250 from an executive vice president for Paramount Pictures.[82]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Nasser
Beydoun
Zach
Burns
Hill
Harper
Leslie
Love
Pamela
Pugh
Jacquise
Purifoy
Elissa
Slotkin
Other Undecided
Target Insyght[A] January 4–10, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 0% 7% 2% 65% 26%
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] Dec 28–29, 2023 549 (LV) ? 2% 12% 3% 50% 34%
14% 56% 31%
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 551 (RV) ± 4.1% 2% 3% 8% 2% 1% 3% 34% 22% 25%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Sandy Pensler
Individuals
Mike Rogers
Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Local officials
Organizations
  • Police Officers Association of Michigan[113]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
James Craig (R)[b] $60,581 $32,581 $27,999
Michael Hoover (R) $212,986[d] $88,493 $124,493
Peter Meijer (R) $508,162[e] $118,666 $389,495
Sherry O'Donnell (R) $158,145 $65,079 $93,065
Sandy Pensler (R) $1,051,311[f] $45,558 $1,005,752
Mike Rogers (R) $1,864,443 $918,889 $945,554
Sharon Savage (R)[g] $100,039[h] $18,521 $81,517
Nikki Snyder (R)[b] $199,423[i] $106,254 $93,169
Source: Federal Election Commission[79]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
James
Craig
Peter
Meijer
Sandy
Pensler
Mike
Rogers
Nikki
Snyder
Other Undecided
March 22, 2024 Nikki Snyder withdraws
Market Resource Group (R) February 19–22, 2024 600 (LV) ? 7% 2% 23% 6%[j] 62%
February 13, 2024 James Craig withdraws
Target Insyght[A] January 4–10, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 11% 2% 20% 1% 1%[k] 33%
Public Policy Polling (D) Oct 9–10, 2023 430 (LV) ± 4.7% 30% 19% 51%
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 477 (RV) ± 4.4% 9% 12% 6% 44%[l] 29%

Green Party

Candidates

Filed paperwork

  • Eric Borregard, graphic designer and perennial candidate[114]
  • Douglas Marsh, newspaper journalist[115]

Independents

Filed paperwork

  • James Frizzell, insurance agency owner[116]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[117] Lean D November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[118] Tilt D February 9, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[119] Lean D November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[120] Lean D May 4, 2023
CNalysis[121] Lean D November 21, 2023

Polling

Elissa Slotkin vs. Justin Amash
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Justin
Amash (R)
Undecided
Emerson College/The Hill Mar 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 35% 22%
Elissa Slotkin vs. Peter Meijer
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Peter
Meijer (R)
Undecided
Emerson College/The Hill Mar 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 34% 24%
Glengariff Group[C] Jan 2–6, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 36% 28%
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 42% 36% 22%
Mitchell Research[D] Jul 11–13, 2023 639 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 28% 31%
Elissa Slotkin vs. Sandy Pesler
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Sandy
Pesler (R)
Undecided
Emerson College/The Hill Mar 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 37% 21%
Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Mike
Rogers (R)
Undecided
Emerson College/The Hill Mar 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 39% 20%
EPIC-MRA Feb 13–18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 38% 23%
Glengariff Group[C] Jan 2–6, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 37% 25%
EPIC-MRA Nov 10–16, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 37% 24%
EPIC-MRA Aug 6–11, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 37% 21%
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 38% 18%
Mitchell Research[D] Jul 11–13, 2023 639 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 38% 17%
Hypothetical polling
Elissa Slotkin vs. James Craig
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
James
Craig (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group[C] Jan 2–6, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 38% 27%
EPIC-MRA Nov 10–16, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 38% 22%
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 38% 17%
EPIC-MRA Jun 8–14, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 39% 21%
Elissa Slotkin vs. Nikki Snyder
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Nikki
Snyder (R)
Undecided
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 36% 20%
Elissa Slotkin vs. John Tuttle
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
John
Tuttle (R)
Undecided
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 35% 20%

Notes

  1. ^ $462,916 of this total was self-funded by Harper
  2. ^ a b c d Withdrawn candidate
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ $190,182 of this total was self-funded by Hoover
  5. ^ $107,119 of this total was self-funded by Meijer
  6. ^ $1,050,000 of this total was self-funded by Pensler
  7. ^ Did not file for Q4
  8. ^ $100,039 of this total was self-funded by Savage
  9. ^ $39,244 of this total was self-funded by Snyder
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
  11. ^ Michael Hoover with 1%; Sherry O'Donnell, Bensson Samuel, Sharon Savage, Alexandria Taylor, and J.D. Wilson with 0%
  12. ^ Michael Hoover with 3%; Ezra Scott, Alexandria Taylor, and John Tuttle with 1%; "Other" with 39%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Michigan Information and Research Service and the Northern Michigan Chamber Alliance
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Voter Protection Project, who have not publicly endorsed any candidate; however, they sent out a press release alongside the poll that describes Slotkin as "the strongest candidate" in the race.[83]
  3. ^ a b c Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
  4. ^ a b Poll commissioned by the Michigan Information and Research Service

References

  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
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  3. ^ Hughes, Siobhan (January 5, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow Won't Seek Re-Election". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved January 5, 2023.
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External links

Official campaign websites