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For related races, see 2008 United States gubernatorial elections.

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The 2008 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican Governor Matt Blunt decided to retire instead of seeking reelection to a second term in office. Democratic nominee Jay Nixon won the open seat, defeating Republican nominee Kenny Hulshof.

Background

On January 22, 2008, Governor Blunt unexpectedly announced that he would not seek re-election[1] because he had already "achieved virtually everything I set out to accomplish, and more ... Because I feel we have changed what I wanted to change in the first term, there is not the same sense of mission for a second."

A November 2007 poll conducted by SurveyUSA showed Blunt with a 44% approval rating.[2] His approval among Republicans polled was 68%, and his rating among Democrats was 23%.[2] On November 10, 2007, Democrat Jay Nixon filed the necessary paperwork with the Missouri Ethics Commission to launch a 2008 campaign for governor.[3]

The gubernatorial and other statewide office primaries were held August 5, 2008.[4] CQ Politics rated the race as 'Leans Democratic'.[5]

Timeline

  • March 25, 2008 – Filing deadline for Democrats, Republicans and Libertarians[6]
  • August 5, 2008 – Primary (gubernatorial and other statewide office) elections[6]
  • August 19, 2008 – Filing deadline for other third parties and Independents[6]
  • November 4, 2008 – General election.

Primaries

Republican primary

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kenny Hulshof 194,556 49.2
Republican Sarah Steelman 176,750 44.7
Republican Scott Long 18,745 4.7
Republican Jen Sievers 5,664 1.4
Total votes 395,715 100.0

Democratic primary

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jay Nixon 303,796 85.0
Democratic Daniel Carroll 53,768 15.0
Total votes 357,564 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[7] Lean D (flip) October 16, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[8] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2008
Real Clear Politics[10] Likely D (flip) November 4, 2008

Polling

Source Date Kenny
Hulshof (R) 		Jay
Nixon (D)
Public Policy Polling November 2, 2008 38% 58%
Survey USA November 2, 2008 39% 54%
Survey USA October 26, 2008 38% 55%
Rasmussen Reports October 14, 2008 38% 57%
Survey USA September 24, 2008 37% 54%
Rasmussen Reports September 11, 2008 39% 54%
Public Policy Polling August 17, 2008 42% 48%
Survey USA July 31, 2008 42% 48%
Rasmussen Reports July 7, 2008 38% 49%
Rasmussen June 9, 2008 34% 54%
Survey USA May 20, 2008 33% 57%
Rasmussen May 8, 2008 35% 51%
Rasmussen March 24, 2008 37% 48%
Rasmussen February 13, 2008 30% 48%
Hypothetical polling
With Steelman
Source Date Sarah
Steelman (R) 		Jay
Nixon (D)
Survey USA July 31, 2008 41% 50%
Rasmussen Reports July 7, 2008 37% 46%
Rasmussen June 9, 2008 34% 56%
Survey USA May 20, 2008 33% 58%
Rasmussen May 8, 2008 35% 51%
Rasmussen March 24, 2008 39% 46%
Rasmussen February 13, 2008 35% 46%
With Blunt
Source Date Matt
Blunt (R) 		Jay
Nixon (D)
Rasmussen Reports December 12, 2007 42% 47%
Research2000 November 24, 2007 42% 51%
Rasmussen October 10, 2007 44% 43%
Rasmussen August 23, 2007 43% 46%
SurveyUSA July 25–27, 2007 38% 57%

Results

On election night, Nixon won easily, even though fellow Democrat Barack Obama lost in Missouri in the concurrent presidential election (albeit by only 4,000 votes). Nixon was able to perform well in rural parts of the state. When combined with heavily populated, strong Democratic areas like St. Louis and Kansas City, Hulshof didn't have a chance to come back. Nixon was declared the winner right when the polls closed in Missouri. Hulshof conceded defeat at 9:02 P.M. Central Time.

2008 Missouri gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jay Nixon 1,680,611 58.4 +10.6
Republican Kenny Hulshof 1,136,364 39.5 -11.3
Libertarian Andrew Finkenstadt 31,850 1.1 +0.2
Constitution Gregory Thompson 28,941 1.0 +0.6
Write-in 12 0.0 n/a
Total votes 2,877,778 100.0 n/a
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

  1. ^ Shelton, Missy (January 22, 2008). "Governor Matt Blunt Will Not Seek Re-election". KSMU. Archived from the original on April 15, 2013. Retrieved July 18, 2021.
  2. ^ a b [1] Survey USA
  3. ^ Article[permanent dead link] by Columbia Daily Tribune: Document points to Nixon run
  4. ^ August 5, 2008 State Primary Election Information Missouri Secretary of State
  5. ^ Dems Gain in Five of Six New CQ Politics Rating Changes Archived 2008-10-12 at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics, October 8, 2008
  6. ^ a b c 2008 Missouri Election Calendar from the Missouri Secretary of State
  7. ^ "2008 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 4, 2021.
  8. ^ "2008 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved May 25, 2021.
  9. ^ "THE LAST LAST WORD The Crystal Ball's Final Projections for the 2008 Election". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 25, 2021.
  10. ^ "2008 Missouri Governor Race". RealClearPolitics. November 4, 2008. Retrieved March 5, 2021.

External links

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_gubernatorial_election,_2008