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The 2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. State voters chose six representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Arkansas was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 9.8% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 11 out of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. Although there was little advertising and campaigning, polling did show a tight race as Bush won the state in 2000 with just over 50%. This was the last election in which Arkansas was decided by a single-digit margin or in which the Democrat received more than 40% of the state’s vote, and the last election in which Arkansas voted to the left of Arizona.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Lean R
Associated Press Lean R
CNN Likely R
Cook Political Report Likely R
Newsweek Lean R
New York Times Lean R
Rasmussen Reports Likely R
Research 2000 Lean R
Washington Post Likely R
Washington Times Lean R
Zogby International Toss-up
Washington Dispatch Likely R

Polling

Pre-election polling showed Bush leading throughout most of the general election. Bush frequently reached the 50% threshold, while Kerry never reached 47% in any poll taken prior to the election. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading at 51% to Kerry at 45%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,387,692.[3] Kerry raised $466,194.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

Early on, Kerry was seen to have a small but mostly insignificant chance at possibly flipping the state back to the Democratic Column. The Kerry Campaign saw Arkansas as a "Secondary Concern" focusing on the more important states such as Ohio and Wisconsin that were the key to winning the General Election. During October however Bush began to widen the margin in many polls mostly due to Bush portraying Kerry as a "Northern Yankee big-city liberal" and a "Tax raiser" in the Presidential debates and after Osama bin Laden delivered a speech on the Arabic news network Al Jazeera days before the election quoted saying “Your security is in your own hands” Bush was essentially guaranteed to carry the state from then on.[7][8][9]

On election day Bush performed better than what polls showed, outperforming nearly every single poll.[10]

The only areas that went for Democratic opponent John Kerry were a handful of Delta counties; the state capital, Little Rock; Pine Bluff; and only a few counties to the south. Bush performed better in Arkansas than last election against Al Gore, the VP of Bill Clinton, the latter being the home son of Arkansas.

In this election, Arkansas voted 7.3% to the right of the nation at-large.[11]

Although Arkansas is the home of former Democratic Governor and President Bill Clinton, who won his state's electoral vote in both 1992 and 1996, Democratic nominees Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 were both unsuccessful in carrying Arkansas, which went to Republican nominee George W. Bush in both elections. This election represented, arguably, the last time Arkansas was considered competitive on a national political level, as the GOP would gain supporters due to an increased distaste for the social liberalism espoused by the Democratic Party. Over the next 12 years, various Democrats representing Arkansas federally and statewide (including all three Democratic Congressmen in the House and both Democratic Senators at the time) would retire or be defeated in "wave" elections, culminating in the state rejecting its former first lady, Hillary Clinton, by almost 27 points in the 2016 election. As of the 2020 election, no statewide or federally elected position (i.e. Congress) in Arkansas is held by a Democrat.

As of the 2020 presidential election, Kerry remains the last Democratic candidate to win more than 40% of the vote. It is also the last election in which Jackson County, Monroe County, Clark County, Mississippi County, Lawrence County, Clay County, Poinsett County, Lincoln County, Bradley County, Randolph County, Hempstead County and Little River County voted for the Democratic candidate. This is also the last time in which the state was decided by a single digit margin of victory.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas[12][13]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) Dick Cheney (incumbent) 572,898 54.31% 6
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 469,953 44.55% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 6,171 0.58% 0
Independent Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 2,345 0.22% 0
Independent Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 2,083 0.20% 0
Independent David Cobb Patricia LaMarche 1,488 0.14% 0
Totals 1,054,945 100.00% 6
Voter turnout (Voter age) 50%

By county

County George W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Arkansas 3,789 54.55% 3,110 44.77% 47 0.68% 679 9.78% 6,946
Ashley 4,567 53.65% 3,881 45.59% 64 0.76% 686 8.06% 8,512
Baxter 11,128 60.05% 7,129 38.47% 273 1.47% 3,999 21.58% 18,530
Benton 46,571 68.37% 20,756 30.47% 794 1.17% 25,815 37.90% 68,121
Boone 9,793 66.27% 4,640 31.40% 344 2.32% 5,153 34.87% 14,777
Bradley 2,011 47.33% 2,206 51.92% 32 0.75% -195 -4.59% 4,249
Calhoun 1,340 58.29% 939 40.84% 20 0.86% 401 17.45% 2,299
Carroll 6,184 59.00% 4,161 39.70% 136 1.30% 2,023 19.30% 10,481
Chicot 1,725 36.26% 2,993 62.92% 39 0.82% -1,268 -26.66% 4,757
Clark 4,144 44.99% 4,990 54.17% 77 0.84% -846 -9.18% 9,211
Clay 2,759 45.26% 3,264 53.54% 73 1.20% -505 -8.28% 6,096
Cleburne 7,107 60.43% 4,517 38.41% 137 1.16% 2,590 22.02% 11,761
Cleveland 2,009 57.47% 1,450 41.48% 37 1.06% 559 15.99% 3,496
Columbia 5,729 57.82% 4,108 41.46% 72 0.72% 1,621 16.36% 9,909
Conway 4,009 49.59% 3,982 49.26% 93 1.15% 27 0.33% 8,084
Craighead 15,818 53.08% 13,665 45.85% 318 1.07% 2,153 7.23% 29,801
Crawford 13,391 65.64% 6,764 33.16% 246 1.20% 6,627 32.48% 20,401
Crittenden 6,930 45.29% 8,277 54.10% 93 0.61% -1,347 -8.81% 15,300
Cross 3,864 54.62% 3,135 44.32% 75 1.06% 729 10.30% 7,074
Dallas 1,700 50.18% 1,671 49.32% 17 0.50% 29 0.86% 3,388
Desha 1,729 37.21% 2,851 61.35% 67 1.45% -1,122 -24.14% 4,647
Drew 3,262 52.20% 2,952 47.24% 35 0.56% 310 4.96% 6,249
Faulkner 21,514 58.64% 14,538 39.63% 634 1.73% 6,976 19.01% 36,686
Franklin 4,181 57.36% 3,008 41.27% 100 1.37% 1,173 16.09% 7,289
Fulton 2,522 50.90% 2,370 47.83% 63 1.27% 152 3.07% 4,955
Garland 21,734 54.13% 18,040 44.93% 380 0.95% 3,694 9.20% 40,154
Grant 4,205 62.11% 2,524 37.28% 41 0.61% 1,681 24.83% 6,770
Greene 7,237 51.86% 6,564 47.04% 154 1.10% 673 4.82% 13,955
Hempstead 3,580 48.04% 3,817 51.22% 55 0.74% -237 -3.18% 7,452
Hot Spring 5,960 49.40% 5,901 48.91% 204 1.69% 59 0.49% 12,065
Howard 2,736 55.35% 2,166 43.82% 41 0.83% 570 11.53% 4,943
Independence 7,430 57.11% 5,443 41.83% 138 1.06% 1,987 15.28% 13,011
Izard 2,833 51.57% 2,586 47.08% 74 1.35% 247 4.49% 5,493
Jackson 2,624 42.19% 3,515 56.52% 80 1.29% -891 -14.33% 6,219
Jefferson 10,218 33.51% 19,675 64.52% 600 1.97% -9,457 -31.01% 30,493
Johnson 4,311 53.59% 3,622 45.03% 111 1.38% 689 8.56% 8,044
Lafayette 1,604 50.27% 1,567 48.11% 20 0.63% 37 1.16% 3,191
Lawrence 2,951 44.61% 3,544 53.58% 120 1.81% -593 -8.97% 6,615
Lee 1,492 36.57% 2,548 62.45% 40 0.98% -1,056 -25.88% 4,080
Lincoln 1,921 46.75% 2,149 52.30% 39 0.95% -228 -5.55% 4,109
Little River 2,575 48.64% 2,677 50.57% 42 0.80% -102 -1.93% 5,294
Logan 5,076 59.36% 3,361 39.31% 114 1.33% 1,715 20.05% 8,551
Lonoke 14,398 65.36% 7,454 33.84% 178 0.80% 6,944 31.52% 22,030
Madison 3,873 60.67% 2,421 37.92% 90 1.41% 1,452 22.75% 6,384
Marion 4,127 60.10% 2,602 37.89% 138 2.01% 1,525 22.21% 6,867
Miller 8,448 57.56% 6,139 41.82% 91 0.62% 2,309 15.74% 14,678
Mississippi 6,121 43.25% 7,593 53.65% 439 3.11% -1,472 -10.40% 14,153
Monroe 1,586 43.25% 2,049 55.88% 32 0.87% -463 -12.63% 3,667
Montgomery 2,367 59.80% 1,524 38.50% 67 1.69% 843 21.30% 3,958
Nevada 1,752 50.39% 1,694 48.72% 31 0.89% 58 1.67% 3,477
Newton 2,779 63.48% 1,506 34.40% 93 2.11% 1,273 29.08% 4,378
Ouachita 5,345 50.19% 5,188 48.71% 117 1.09% 157 1.48% 10,650
Perry 2,435 54.95% 1,921 43.35% 75 1.69% 514 11.60% 4,431
Phillips 3,161 35.65% 5,642 63.62% 65 0.73% -2,481 -27.97% 8,868
Pike 2,013 59.79% 1,310 38.91% 44 1.30% 703 20.88% 3,367
Poinsett 3,555 46.03% 4,069 52.69% 99 1.28% -514 -6.66% 7,723
Polk 5,192 66.57% 2,473 31.71% 134 1.72% 2,719 34.86% 7,799
Pope 13,614 65.13% 7,100 33.97% 188 0.90% 6,514 31.16% 20,902
Prairie 2,030 56.02% 1,562 43.10% 32 0.88% 468 12.92% 3,624
Pulaski 67,903 44.20% 84,532 55.03% 1,185 0.77% -16,629 -10.83% 153,620
Randolph 3,158 47.37% 3,412 51.18% 97 1.44% -254 -3.81% 6,667
St. Francis 3,815 39.79% 5,684 59.28% 89 0.93% -1,869 -19.49% 9,588
Saline 24,864 63.15% 14,153 35.94% 359 0.92% 10,711 27.21% 39,376
Scott 2,514 62.26% 1,473 36.48% 51 1.26% 1,041 25.78% 4,038
Searcy 2,565 64.25% 1,370 34.32% 57 1.44% 1,195 29.93% 3,992
Sebastian 27,303 61.76% 16,479 37.27% 429 0.97% 10,824 24.49% 44,211
Sevier 2,516 54.68% 2,035 44.23% 50 1.08% 481 10.45% 4,601
Sharp 4,097 54.85% 3,265 43.71% 108 1.45% 832 11.14% 7,470
Stone 3,188 57.45% 2,255 40.64% 106 1.91% 933 16.81% 5,549
Union 10,502 58.89% 7,071 39.65% 259 1.46% 3,431 19.24% 17,832
Van Buren 3,988 54.08% 3,310 44.89% 76 1.03% 678 9.19% 7,374
Washington 35,726 55.73% 27,597 43.05% 780 1.22% 8,129 12.68% 64,103
White 17,001 64.34% 9,129 34.55% 295 1.12% 7,872 29.79% 26,425
Woodruff 1,021 33.74% 1,972 65.17% 33 1.09% -951 -31.43% 3,026
Yell 3,678 55.23% 2,913 43.75% 68 1.03% 765 11.48% 6,659
Totals 572,898 54.31% 469,953 44.55% 12,094 1.15% 102,945 9.76% 1,054,945
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Bush won all 4 congressional districts, including three held by Democrats.[14]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 52% 47% Marion Berry
2nd 51% 48% Vic Snyder
3rd 62% 36% John Boozman
4th 51% 48% Mike Ross

Electors

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Arkansas. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney:

  1. Bobbi Dodge
  2. Gay White
  3. Ida Fineburg
  4. John Felts
  5. Jim Davis
  6. Martha McCaskill

See also

References