| Elections in South Carolina |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. South Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Carolina has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Although not as right-leaning as the other Deep South states apart from its newly competitive neighbor Georgia, South Carolina has a conservative voting pattern and is considered a strongly red state at the federal and state level, with the only Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since JFK in 1960 being Georgian Jimmy Carter in 1976. Therefore, the state is expected to vote Republican in 2024, as it has in each election starting in 1980.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee approved a new 2024 primary calendar, moving South Carolina to hold its race first on February 3, 2024.[4] Due to protests to the change, the New Hampshire primary was scheduled for January 23, maintaining its traditional "first-in-the-nation" status. However, the primary was deemed non-binding, so the South Carolina primary was the first contest in which candidates could earn delegates.[5] President Biden won the primary in a landslide, winning all 55 of the state's unbound delegates.[6] The Democratic primary recorded low voter turnout among registered voters, with only 4% participating.[7]
The South Carolina Democratic primary was held on February 3, 2024.
- >90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 126,493 | 96.2% | 55 | TBD | 55 |
| Marianne Williamson | 2,732 | 2.1% | 0 | TBD | 0 |
| Dean Phillips | 2,247 | 1.7% | 0 | 0 | |
| Total: | 131,472 | 100% | 55 | 10 | 65 |
Republican primary
The South Carolina Republican primary was held on February 24, 2024, the fifth contest in the nationwide Republican primaries. Nikki Haley, who served as the governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017, lost her home state to former president Donald Trump by 20 points. Trump won six congressional districts, earning a total of 47 delegates. Haley won the 1st district, earning three delegates.
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 452,496 | 59.79% | 47 | 47 | |
| Nikki Haley | 299,084 | 39.52% | 3 | 3 | |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 2,953 | 0.39% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 726 | 0.10% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 658 | 0.09% | |||
| Ryan Binkley | 528 | 0.07% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 361 | 0.05% | |||
| Total: | 756,806 | 100.00% | 50 | 0 | 50 |
| Source: [9] | |||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[10] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Solid R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] | Solid R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[14] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[15] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 37% | 12% |
| The Citadel | February 5–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 54% | 35% | 11% |
| Winthrop University | February 2–10, 2024 | 1,717 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | February 1–8, 2024 | 679 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
| 643 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 36% | 10% | ||
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | August 24–25, 2022 | 721 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 34% | 20% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Joe Manchin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Citadel | February 5–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 32% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
- Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Citadel | February 5–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Winthrop University | February 2–10, 2024 | 1,717 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 47% | 29% | 24% |
- Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Joe Manchin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Citadel | February 5–11, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 41% | 25% | 20% | 3% | 4% | 7% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in South Carolina
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 10, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Vakil, Caroline (February 4, 2023). "DNC approves adjusted early presidential primary schedule". The Hill. Retrieved March 13, 2023.
- ^ Kashinsky, Lisa (October 30, 2023). "Democrats launch write-in campaign for Biden in N.H." Politico. Retrieved October 30, 2023.
- ^ Nicholas, Peter (February 3, 2024). "Biden wins South Carolina primary, NBC News projects". NBC News. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
- ^ Hubbard, Kaia (February 4, 2024). "South Carolina Democratic primary turnout for 2024 and how it compares to previous years - CBS News". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
- ^ "South Carolina Democratic Primary Results". New York Times. Retrieved February 3, 2024.
- ^ "10 Republicans will be on SC's presidential primary — but not Asa Hutchinson". The Post and Courier. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
