The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections will be held November 5, 2024, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2024 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.
Election ratings
Latest published ratings for competitive seats
Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
In total there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 218 are needed for a majority, while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirds supermajority (if all members are sitting and voting).
- Graphical summary of national polls
Most election ratings use:
- Tossup: no advantage
- Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
- Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
- Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
- Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain
The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.
| District | CPVI [1] |
Incumbent | Last result[2] | Cook April 19, 2024[3] |
IE March 28, 2024[4] |
Sabato April 24, 2024[5] |
ED March 22, 2024[6] |
CNalysis March 27, 2024[7] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama 2 | D+4 | New seat | – | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Solid D (flip) |
| Alaska at-large | R+8 | Mary Peltola | 55.0% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D |
| Arizona 1 | R+2 | David Schweikert | 50.4% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona 6 | R+3 | Juan Ciscomani | 50.7% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| California 3 | R+4 | Kevin Kiley | 53.6% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R |
| California 9 | D+5 | Josh Harder | 54.8% D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Solid D |
| California 13 | D+4 | John Duarte | 50.2% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup |
| California 21 | D+9 | Jim Costa | 54.2% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Solid D |
| California 22 | D+5 | David Valadao | 51.5% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) |
| California 27 | D+4 | Mike Garcia | 53.2% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup |
| California 40 | R+2 | Young Kim | 56.8% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R |
| California 41 | R+3 | Ken Calvert | 52.3% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup |
| California 45 | D+2 | Michelle Steel | 52.4% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Tilt R |
| California 47 | D+3 | Katie Porter (retiring) |
51.7% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D |
| California 49 | D+3 | Mike Levin | 52.6% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Very Likely D |
| Colorado 3 | R+7 | Open seat[a] | 50.1% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Tilt R |
| Colorado 5 | R+9 | Doug Lamborn (retiring) |
56.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Very Likely R |
| Colorado 8 | EVEN | Yadira Caraveo | 48.4% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D |
| Connecticut 5 | D+3 | Jahana Hayes | 50.5% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Very Likely D |
| Florida 7 | R+5 | Cory Mills | 58.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Florida 9 | D+8 | Darren Soto | 53.6% D | Likely D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Very Likely D |
| Florida 13 | R+6 | Anna Paulina Luna | 53.1% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Florida 15 | R+4 | Laurel Lee | 58.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Florida 23 | D+5 | Jared Moskowitz | 51.6% D | Likely D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Very Likely D |
| Florida 27 | EVEN | María Elvira Salazar | 57.3% R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Very Likely R |
| Georgia 2 | D+3 | Sanford Bishop | 55.0% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Solid D |
| Illinois 17 | D+2 | Eric Sorensen | 51.9% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D |
| Indiana 1 | D+3 | Frank J. Mrvan | 52.8% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D |
| Iowa 1 | R+3 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | 53.4% R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Iowa 2 | R+4 | Ashley Hinson | 54.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Very Likely R |
| Iowa 3 | R+3 | Zach Nunn | 50.2% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup |
| Kansas 3 | R+1 | Sharice Davids | 54.9% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Very Likely D |
| Louisiana 6 | D+8 | Garret Graves | 80.4% R | Solid D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Solid D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | Solid D (flip) |
| Maine 2 | R+6 | Jared Golden | 53.1% D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tilt D |
| Maryland 6 | D+2 | David Trone (retiring) |
54.7% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Very Likely D |
| Michigan 3 | D+1 | Hillary Scholten | 54.9% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Solid D |
| Michigan 4 | R+5 | Bill Huizenga | 54.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Very Likely R |
| Michigan 7 | R+2 | Elissa Slotkin (retiring) |
51.7% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Michigan 8 | R+1 | Dan Kildee (retiring) |
53.1% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup |
| Michigan 10 | R+3 | John James | 48.8% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Tilt R |
| Minnesota 2 | D+1 | Angie Craig | 50.9% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Missouri 2 | R+7 | Ann Wagner | 54.9% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Very Likely R |
| Montana 1 | R+6 | Ryan Zinke | 49.6% R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R |
| Nebraska 2 | EVEN | Don Bacon | 51.3% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Nevada 1 | D+3 | Dina Titus | 51.6% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Nevada 3 | D+1 | Susie Lee | 52.0% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D |
| Nevada 4 | D+3 | Steven Horsford | 52.4% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| New Hampshire 1 | EVEN | Chris Pappas | 54.0% D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D |
| New Hampshire 2 | D+2 | Annie Kuster (retiring) |
55.8% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Very Likely D |
| New Jersey 3 | D+5 | Andy Kim (retiring) |
55.4% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Solid D |
| New Jersey 5 | D+4 | Josh Gottheimer | 54.7% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Solid D |
| New Jersey 7 | R+1 | Thomas Kean Jr. | 51.3% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Tilt R |
| New Mexico 1 | D+5 | Melanie Stansbury | 55.7% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Solid D |
| New Mexico 2 | D+1 | Gabe Vasquez | 50.3% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D |
| New York 1 | R+3 | Nick LaLota | 55.5% R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| New York 2 | R+3 | Andrew Garbarino | 60.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R |
| New York 3 | D+2 | Tom Suozzi | 53.9% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| New York 4 | D+5 | Anthony D'Esposito | 51.8% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) |
| New York 17 | D+3 | Mike Lawler | 50.3% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| New York 18 | D+1 | Pat Ryan | 50.6% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D |
| New York 19 | EVEN | Marc Molinaro | 50.8% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| New York 22 | D+1 | Brandon Williams | 50.5% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) |
| North Carolina 1 | R+1 | Don Davis | 52.4% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| North Carolina 6 | R+11 | New seat | – | Solid R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Solid R (flip) |
| North Carolina 11 | R+8 | Chuck Edwards | 53.8% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R |
| North Carolina 13 | R+11 | Wiley Nickel (retiring) |
51.6% D | Solid R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Solid R (flip) |
| North Carolina 14 | R+11 | Jeff Jackson (retiring) |
57.7% D | Solid R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Solid R (flip) |
| Ohio 1 | D+2 | Greg Landsman | 52.8% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Ohio 9 | R+3 | Marcy Kaptur | 56.6% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D |
| Ohio 13 | R+1 | Emilia Sykes | 52.7% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D |
| Oregon 4 | D+4 | Val Hoyle | 50.5% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D |
| Oregon 5 | D+2 | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 50.9% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Oregon 6 | D+4 | Andrea Salinas | 50.0% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Very Likely D |
| Pennsylvania 1 | EVEN | Brian Fitzpatrick | 54.9% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Very Likely R |
| Pennsylvania 7 | R+2 | Susan Wild | 51.0% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania 8 | R+4 | Matt Cartwright | 51.2% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D |
| Pennsylvania 10 | R+5 | Scott Perry | 53.8% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Pennsylvania 17 | EVEN | Chris Deluzio | 53.4% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D |
| South Carolina 1 | R+7 | Nancy Mace | 56.4% R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Very Likely R |
| Tennessee 5 | R+9 | Andy Ogles | 55.8% R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Very Likely R |
| Texas 15 | R+1 | Monica De La Cruz | 53.3% R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Texas 28 | D+3 | Henry Cuellar | 56.7% D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D |
| Texas 34 | D+9 | Vicente Gonzalez | 52.7% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Very Likely D |
| Virginia 1 | R+6 | Rob Wittman | 56.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Very Likely R |
| Virginia 2 | R+2 | Jen Kiggans | 51.6% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Tilt R |
| Virginia 7 | D+1 | Abigail Spanberger (retiring) |
52.2% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D |
| Virginia 10 | D+6 | Jennifer Wexton (retiring) |
53.3% D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D |
| Washington 3 | R+5 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 50.1% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Washington 8 | D+1 | Kim Schrier | 53.3% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Wisconsin 1 | R+3 | Bryan Steil | 54.1% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Wisconsin 3 | R+4 | Derrick Van Orden | 51.8% R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Overall | D – 203 R – 210 22 tossups |
D – 209 R – 216 10 tossups |
D – 206 R – 211 18 tossups |
D – 207 R – 210 18 tossups |
D – 210 R – 208 17 tossups | |||
Party listings
The two parties campaign committees NRCC and DCCC published their own lists of targeted seats.
Republican-held seats
On April 3, 2023, the DCCC released their target seat list which included Republican-held seats and open seats.[8]
- Arizona 1: David Schweikert
- Arizona 6: Juan Ciscomani
- California 3: Kevin Kiley
- California 13: John Duarte
- California 22: David Valadao
- California 27: Mike Garcia
- California 40: Young Kim
- California 41: Ken Calvert
- California 45: Michelle Steel
- Colorado 3: Open seat
- Florida 13: Anna Paulina Luna
- Florida 27: Maria Elvira Salazar
- Iowa 1: Mariannette Miller-Meeks
- Iowa 3: Zach Nunn
- Montana 1: Ryan Zinke
- Michigan 10: John James
- Nebraska 2: Don Bacon
- New Jersey 7: Thomas Kean Jr.
- New York 1: Nick LaLota
- New York 4: Anthony D'Esposito
- New York 17: Mike Lawler
- New York 19: Marc Molinaro
- New York 22: Brandon Williams
- Oregon 5: Lori Chavez-DeRemer
- Pennsylvania 1: Brian Fitzpatrick
- Pennsylvania 10: Scott Perry
- Texas 15: Monica De La Cruz
- Virginia 2: Jen Kiggans
- Wisconsin 1: Bryan Steil
- Wisconsin 3: Derrick Van Orden
Democratic-held seats
On March 13, 2023, the NRCC released their target seat list which included Democratic-held seats and open seats.[9] The DCCC also released its frontline members, which are bolded below, and the ones not bolded are seats targeted by the NRCC but not in the DCCC frontline program:
- Alaska At-Large: Mary Peltola
- California 9: Josh Harder
- California 47: Open seat
- California 49: Mike Levin
- Colorado 8: Yadira Caraveo
- Connecticut 5: Jahana Hayes
- Florida 9: Darren Soto
- Illinois 17: Eric Sorensen
- Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
- Kansas 3: Sharice Davids
- Maine 2: Jared Golden
- Michigan 3: Hillary Scholten
- Michigan 7: Open seat
- Michigan 8: Open Seat
- Minnesota 2: Angie Craig
- North Carolina 1: Don Davis
- North Carolina 13: Open Seat
- North Carolina 14: Open Seat
- New Hampshire 1: Chris Pappas
- New Mexico 2: Gabe Vasquez
- Nevada 1: Dina Titus
- Nevada 3: Susie Lee
- Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
- Ohio 1: Greg Landsman
- Ohio 9: Marcy Kaptur
- Ohio 13: Emilia Sykes
- Oregon 4: Val Hoyle
- Oregon 6: Andrea Salinas
- Pennsylvania 7: Susan Wild
- Pennsylvania 8: Matt Cartwright
- Pennsylvania 17: Chris Deluzio
- Rhode Island 2: Seth Magaziner
- Texas 34: Vicente Gonzalez
- Virginia 7: Open seat
- Washington 3: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
- Washington 8: Kim Schrier
References
- ^ "2022 Cook PVI: District Map and List". Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 7, 2022.
- ^ "House of Representatives Results: GOP wins the majority". CNN. Retrieved February 2, 2023.
- ^ "2024 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
- ^ "2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. March 28, 2024.
- ^ "2024 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. February 23, 2023.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
- ^ "'24 House Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 19, 2023.
- ^ RRobinson@DCCC.ORG (April 3, 2023). "DCCC Announces 2023-2024 Districts In Play". DCCC. Retrieved July 15, 2023.
- ^ "NRCC Announces 37 Offensive Pick-Up Opportunities to Grow GOP House Majority". NRCC. March 13, 2023. Retrieved July 15, 2023.
Notes
- ^ Incumbent Republican Lauren Boebert is running in Colorado's 4th congressional district.