Battle of Backbone Mountain

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Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in Arkansas was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arkansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Arkansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

Although Clinton once served as the First Lady of Arkansas from 1979 to 1981 and from 1983 to 1992 as the wife of then-Governor Bill Clinton, Arkansas was considered to be a state Trump would win or otherwise a safe red state. Bill Clinton won the state twice in 1992 and 1996, but the state has trended Republican in every election since the 2000, and no Democrat won a statewide election there since 2010. Trump won the state with 60.57% of the vote, and Hillary Clinton received 33.65% of the vote.[2] The Republican candidate has carried Arkansas in every election starting in 2000. This is also the first election in which the state simultaneously voted for a Republican presidential candidate and a Republican Senate candidate. Arkansas was 1 of 11 states that voted twice for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016.

Trump's 60.57% share of the vote is tied with Mitt Romney's 60.57% in 2012, making both candidates' performances the best result for the Republicans in Arkansas since Richard Nixon in 1972. However, Trump bested Romney in terms of margin, winning by 26.92% versus Romney's 23.69%. The Prohibition Party candidate, James Hedges, also had the notable achievement of finishing third in Arkansas County, ahead of major third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, the only county in the country where he did so.

Primary elections

On March 1, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Arkansas voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic, Republican, Green, Libertarian, Constitution, and Prohibition parties' respective nominees for president. Registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

Results of the Democratic primary by county. Bernie Sanders took Newton County and Carroll County. All others went to Hillary Clinton.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

Opinion polling

Results

Primary date: March 1, 2016
National delegates: 37


 • d 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Arkansas
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 146,057 66.08% 22 5 27
Bernie Sanders 66,236 29.97% 10 0 10
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 2,785 1.26%
John Wolfe Jr. 2,556 1.16%
James Valentine 1,702 0.77%
Rocky De La Fuente 1,684 0.76%
Total 221,020 100% 32 5 37
Sources: The Green Papers and Official County results (provisional) Arkansas Secretary of State

Republican primary

Republican primary results by county.
  Donald Trump
  Ted Cruz
  Marco Rubio

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[3][4]

Arkansas Republican primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 134,744 32.79% 16 0 16
Ted Cruz 125,340 30.50% 15 0 15
Marco Rubio 101,910 24.80% 9 0 9
Ben Carson 23,521 5.72% 0 0 0
John Kasich 15,305 3.72% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 4,792 1.17% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 2,402 0.58% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 1,151 0.28% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 631 0.15% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 411 0.10% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 292 0.07% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 252 0.06% 0 0 0
Bobby Jindal (withdrawn) 169 0.04% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 410,920 100.00% 40 0 40
Source: The Green Papers

General election

Polling

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Arkansas as of Election Day.

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[5] Safe R November 6, 2016
CNN[6] Safe R November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[7] Safe R November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R November 7, 2016
NBC[9] Likely R November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[10] Safe R November 8, 2016
Fox News[11] Safe R November 7, 2016
ABC[12] Safe R November 7, 2016

Statewide results

Results by township
Map legend
  •   Clinton—40–50%
  •   Clinton—50–60%
  •   Clinton—60–70%
  •   Clinton—70–80%
  •   Clinton—80–90%
  •   Clinton—90–100%
  •   Trump–40–50%
  •   Trump–50–60%
  •   Trump–60–70%
  •   Trump–70–80%
  •   Trump–80–90%
  •   Trump–90–100%
2016 United States presidential election in Arkansas[13]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes % Electoral votes
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 684,872 60.57% 6
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 380,494 33.65% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 29,949 2.64% 0
Independent Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson 13,176 1.17% 0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 9,473 0.84% 0
Prohibition Party Jim Hedges Bill Bayes 4,709 0.42% 0
Constitution Darrell Castle Scott Bradley 4,613 0.41% 0
Independent Lynn S. Kahn Kathleen Monahan 3,390 0.30% 0
Total 1,130,676 100.00% 6

Results by county

County Donald Trump
Republican
Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Arkansas 3,826 61.59% 1,939 31.21% 447 7.20% 1,887 30.38% 6,212
Ashley 5,338 66.04% 2,408 29.79% 337 4.17% 2,930 36.25% 8,083
Baxter 14,682 74.28% 4,169 21.09% 915 4.63% 10,513 53.19% 19,766
Benton 60,871 62.87% 28,005 28.92% 7,948 8.21% 32,866 33.95% 96,824
Boone 12,235 75.94% 2,926 18.16% 950 5.90% 9,309 57.78% 16,111
Bradley 2,164 59.24% 1,317 36.05% 172 4.71% 847 23.19% 3,653
Calhoun 1,556 68.58% 639 28.16% 74 3.26% 917 40.42% 2,269
Carroll 6,786 63.08% 3,342 31.07% 630 5.85% 3,444 32.01% 10,758
Chicot 1,716 41.09% 2,350 56.27% 110 2.64% -634 -15.18% 4,176
Clark 4,404 51.65% 3,620 42.46% 502 5.89% 784 9.19% 8,526
Clay 3,781 72.71% 1,199 23.06% 220 4.23% 2,582 49.65% 5,200
Cleburne 9,458 78.26% 2,101 17.39% 526 4.35% 7,357 60.87% 12,085
Cleveland 2,462 73.40% 723 21.56% 169 5.04% 1,739 51.84% 3,354
Columbia 5,456 61.39% 3,140 35.33% 291 3.28% 2,316 26.06% 8,887
Conway 4,849 61.17% 2,656 33.51% 422 5.32% 2,193 27.66% 7,927
Craighead 22,892 64.35% 10,538 29.62% 2,143 6.03% 12,354 34.73% 35,573
Crawford 16,686 74.33% 4,488 19.99% 1,276 5.68% 12,198 54.34% 22,450
Crittenden 6,964 43.66% 8,410 52.72% 578 3.62% -1,446 -9.06% 15,952
Cross 4,584 66.69% 1,999 29.08% 291 4.23% 2,585 37.61% 6,874
Dallas 1,509 54.46% 1,165 42.04% 97 3.50% 344 12.42% 2,771
Desha 1,919 45.08% 2,228 52.34% 110 2.58% -309 -7.26% 4,257
Drew 3,968 60.17% 2,365 35.86% 262 3.97% 1,603 24.31% 6,595
Faulkner 29,346 61.75% 14,629 30.78% 3,552 7.47% 14,717 30.97% 47,527
Franklin 5,039 74.43% 1,376 20.32% 355 5.25% 3,663 54.11% 6,770
Fulton 3,471 72.74% 1,067 22.36% 234 4.90% 2,404 50.38% 4,772
Garland 26,087 63.93% 12,311 30.17% 2,407 5.90% 13,776 33.76% 40,805
Grant 5,725 76.90% 1,373 18.44% 347 4.66% 4,352 58.46% 7,445
Greene 10,720 73.42% 3,071 21.03% 809 5.55% 7,649 52.39% 14,600
Hempstead 4,401 62.43% 2,377 33.72% 271 3.85% 2,024 28.71% 7,049
Hot Spring 8,172 68.42% 3,149 26.36% 623 5.22% 5,023 42.06% 11,944
Howard 3,157 67.54% 1,351 28.90% 166 3.56% 1,806 38.64% 4,674
Independence 9,936 72.98% 2,881 21.16% 797 5.86% 7,055 51.82% 13,614
Izard 4,042 74.19% 1,113 20.43% 293 5.38% 2,929 53.76% 5,448
Jackson 3,267 63.36% 1,583 30.70% 306 5.94% 1,684 32.66% 5,156
Jefferson 9,250 35.72% 15,772 60.91% 872 3.37% -6,522 -25.19% 25,894
Johnson 6,091 66.85% 2,427 26.64% 594 6.51% 3,664 40.21% 9,112
Lafayette 1,758 61.47% 1,032 36.08% 70 2.45% 726 25.39% 2,860
Lawrence 4,064 71.49% 1,263 22.22% 358 6.29% 2,801 49.27% 5,685
Lee 1,229 40.61% 1,735 57.34% 62 2.05% -506 -16.73% 3,026
Lincoln 2,455 64.17% 1,252 32.72% 119 3.11% 1,203 31.45% 3,826
Little River 3,605 68.97% 1,397 26.73% 225 4.30% 2,208 42.24% 5,227
Logan 5,746 72.54% 1,715 21.65% 460 5.81% 4,031 50.89% 7,921
Lonoke 19,958 73.65% 5,664 20.90% 1,478 5.45% 14,294 52.75% 27,100
Madison 4,928 72.04% 1,588 23.21% 325 4.75% 3,340 48.83% 6,841
Marion 5,336 75.08% 1,434 20.18% 337 4.74% 3,902 54.90% 7,107
Miller 11,294 70.19% 4,273 26.56% 524 3.25% 7,021 43.63% 16,091
Mississippi 7,061 53.48% 5,670 42.94% 473 3.58% 1,391 10.54% 13,204
Monroe 1,489 51.63% 1,312 45.49% 83 2.88% 177 6.14% 2,884
Montgomery 2,643 74.26% 748 21.02% 168 4.72% 1,895 53.24% 3,559
Nevada 2,000 61.61% 1,157 35.64% 89 2.75% 843 25.97% 3,246
Newton 2,875 76.61% 699 18.63% 179 4.76% 2,176 57.98% 3,753
Ouachita 5,351 53.86% 4,321 43.49% 263 2.65% 1,030 10.37% 9,935
Perry 3,008 69.86% 1,049 24.36% 249 5.78% 1,959 45.50% 4,306
Phillips 2,446 35.18% 4,310 61.99% 197 2.83% -1,864 -26.81% 6,953
Pike 3,150 79.13% 685 17.21% 146 3.66% 2,465 61.92% 3,981
Poinsett 5,502 71.25% 1,880 24.35% 340 4.40% 3,622 46.90% 7,722
Polk 6,618 80.40% 1,212 14.72% 401 4.88% 5,406 65.68% 8,231
Pope 16,256 72.03% 5,000 22.15% 1,313 5.82% 11,256 49.88% 22,569
Prairie 2,505 72.74% 814 23.64% 125 3.62% 1,691 49.10% 3,444
Pulaski 61,257 38.34% 89,574 56.06% 8,945 5.60% -28,317 -17.72% 159,776
Randolph 4,509 70.69% 1,425 22.34% 445 6.97% 3,084 48.35% 6,379
St. Francis 3,195 43.00% 4,031 54.25% 204 2.75% -836 -11.25% 7,430
Saline 35,863 68.83% 13,256 25.44% 2,981 5.73% 22,607 43.39% 52,100
Scott 2,731 77.81% 602 17.15% 177 5.04% 2,129 60.66% 3,510
Searcy 2,955 79.27% 601 16.12% 172 4.61% 2,354 63.15% 3,728
Sebastian 29,127 65.25% 12,300 27.56% 3,210 7.19% 16,827 37.69% 44,637
Sevier 3,282 71.94% 1,075 23.56% 205 4.50% 2,207 48.38% 4,562
Sharp 5,407 74.59% 1,472 20.31% 370 5.10% 3,935 54.28% 7,249
Stone 4,113 73.21% 1,203 21.41% 302 5.38% 2,910 51.80% 5,618
Union 10,456 61.89% 5,855 34.66% 583 3.45% 4,601 27.23% 16,894
Van Buren 5,382 73.33% 1,549 21.11% 408 5.56% 3,833 52.22% 7,339
Washington 41,476 50.67% 33,366 40.76% 7,019 8.57% 8,110 9.91% 81,861
White 21,077 75.28% 5,170 18.46% 1,752 6.26% 15,907 56.82% 27,999
Woodruff 1,347 52.39% 1,118 43.49% 106 4.12% 229 8.90% 2,571
Yell 4,608 71.56% 1,480 22.98% 351 5.46% 3,128 48.58% 6,439
Totals 684,872 60.57% 380,494 33.65% 65,310 5.78% 304,378 26.92% 1,130,676

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Trump won all four of the state's congressional districts.[14]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 65.0% 30.2% Rick Crawford
2nd 52.4% 41.7% French Hill
3rd 61.9% 30.5% Steve Womack
4th 64.2% 31.3% Bruce Westerman

Turnout

The voter turnout in Arkansas was 64.65% with 1,137,772 ballots cast out of 1,759,974 registered voters.[15]

See also

References

  1. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Archived from the original on January 9, 2019. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
  2. ^ "Arkansas Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  3. ^ James Jackson (November 10, 2015). "Candidates file for Arkansas primaries - News - The Sun-Times - Heber Springs, AR - Heber Springs, AR". The Sun-Times. Archived from the original on November 16, 2015. Retrieved January 21, 2016.
  4. ^ "Washington County, AR : March 1, 2016 Republican Preferential Primary Sample Ballots". Co.washington.ar.us. Archived from the original on January 29, 2016. Retrieved January 21, 2016.
  5. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  6. ^ "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  7. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  8. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  9. ^ Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  10. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  11. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  12. ^ "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  13. ^ "2016 General ELection and Nonpartisan Runoff Election Official County Results". Arkansas Secretary of State.
  14. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  15. ^ "AR - Election Results". Retrieved December 2, 2016.

External links